Tricky August weather flattens the swell

Single fin slicing it.
Single fin slicing it.

WE'VE had enough warm weather and lack of swell to get the crew crowing about an early spring already.

But that's an old trick for August. It does this every year.

As for what spring will bring we'll get into that at a later date with a more in- depth look at what the SOI (southern oscillation index) is likely to do next.

But more pertinent to us all right now is this.

There are two frontal lows on the east coast, one has just passed and the other is about to squeeze through Bass Strait.

Will it turn into a short-lived ECL (east coast low) driving a chunky Sunday swell?


Local grom Kian getting some cover this week.
Local grom Kian getting some cover this week.

Or will it bounce off the high and head out to sea, dumping a smaller southerly swell on our doorstep a day too late on Monday.


Well folks, I hate to be a party pooper but my money is on the later of the two options.

The later we get in the season, the less likely it is that a frontal system will form into an ECL.

As spring starts to assert its influence, the highs tend to outnumber the lows and right now those highs are looking pretty solidly set.

We could get the tail end of some wind swell from the southerly frontal system that drove past our region last night.

But there may not be enough intensity in it to last very long.

So get moving quickly on Saturday morning to hedge your bets.

If the second front does spin, then and only then will we experience a rapid rise in swell from the south on Sunday.


The local butcher, Graham, enjoying his day off.
The local butcher, Graham, enjoying his day off. Inbyronbaytodaycom

However I really doubt we'll see this eventuate, although I hope I'm wrong.


Saturday morning will be the pick, get in quick while the wind is still offshore.

Head for the south-facing beaches to make the most of what's left of this southerly pulse.

Sunday will most likely only be a 0.5-1m residual swell and the winds are forecast to swing onshore, E/NE 10-15kts.

So not really promising at all.

Having said that, as we all know, you can't trust a low.

So if this system does spin up, then things could change.

Yet I really wouldn't be sitting around waiting for that to happen. Saturday is the day, so get moving if you want waves.

Remember to have fun, wait your turn, and surf today like you want to surf again tomorrow

Check out Ben's website

Topics:  surfing weather

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