The good news is we should get some okay waves this weekend
OKAY so Huey played a joke on us last weekend. It happens. There were waves on Friday and Monday with little more than onshore dribble in between. That's spring for you; sometimes it's just a tad rude.
But after a good long perusal of the maps this week I come bearing good news. Okay, relatively good news. Well, sort of good news.
There is a large dual-centred high pressure system setting up in the Southern Coral Sea that should slowly drift south into the Northern Tasman. So what, it's not a low? True it's not a low, but highs can also produce easterly trade winds, and that should mean waves.
We also have a new south swell driving up the coast that could arrive tomorrow, but it's a toss of the coin whether it hits or stays out deep.
It's the trade winds from the high that we'd best look to for waves. The system is big, and it won't be broken up easily.
The only questions are how strong will the fetch get, how much swell will it produce, and how long will it last?
When it comes, it will be easterly, possibly with a leftover south swell thrown into the mix. But like I said, the south swell is a gamble; hopefully we'll see the beginnings of the new east swell on Sunday.
The size is hard to predict, the system is a long way offshore, it really depends on how long, strong and far the wind blows. But it would be safe to say that anywhere from 1-2.5m of east swell can be expected in our region over the next few days. It may even last well into next week. Of course it is spring, which means we'll still have to deal with wind and unforeseen changes in the weather pattern.
Tomorrow we may see swell from the S/SE 1-1.5m with S/SE wind 10-20knots. Out of that wind also means in the lee of the swell, so unless you're into very bumpy, it may be fairly small.
Sunday sees lighter trade winds arrive around 5-10knots from the E/NE. Not the best direction but really not strong enough to damage what south swell we have left. It could signal the start of that new swell.
It's most likely to start small from the E, 1-1.5m, but you never know, we could get lucky and see more size later Sunday afternoon. The spanner in the works is that southerly on Saturday. If it holds into Sunday the whole thing could stall, causing the east swell to arrive when the weekend is over.
Hopefully Huey won't pull that joke on us two weeks in a row.
Happy hunting folks, remember to have fun, wait your turn, and surf today like you want to surf again tomorrow.