APN poll of more than 2800 shows Labor facing wipeout
SUPPORT for the Palmer United Party has gone past the Greens in Queensland, an APN online survey reveals.
It comes after a Nielsen poll this week showed Clive Palmer's party had drawn level with the Greens on 8% in his home state of Queensland.
While APN's opt-in survey of more than 2800 people was not a scientific poll, the voting intention results were almost identical to most nationwide polls conducted in the past week.
Less than a third of respondents (31%) said they would vote Labor on Saturday, while 44% indicated they would be voting for the Coalition.
This reflects the results of Monday's Newspoll, published in The Australian, which had Labor's primary vote at 33% and 46% for the Coalition.
In a bad sign for Labor 93% of respondents to the APN survey, which was conducted between Friday and Tuesday, indicated their vote was locked in.
Support for the PUP sat at 8.3% in the APN survey - well ahead of the Greens on 6%.
Just 3.2% of people said they were undecided.
But given more than 2000 of the survey's respondents were from Queensland, the state-specific results are even more telling.
Just a quarter of Queensland respondents indicated they would be voting for Labor and 48% for the Coalition.
Support for PUP among Queenslanders came in at 9.4%, compared to 5.3% for the Greens and 4.4% for Katter's Australian Party.
These results are similar the Nielsen poll of Queensland voters published by Fairfax this week.
In that poll, the Coalition led Labor 45% to 31% in voting intention - although support for Labor dropped to 28% in rural areas.
This is much closer to the result of the APN survey, where the vast bulk of respondents were based in regional parts of the state.
Support for the PUP in the Nielsen poll was 8%, the same as the Greens, while 4% indicated they would vote for KAP - the same as the APN survey.
The result among NSW respondents, most of whom were based in the north-east corner of the state, was almost the polar opposite.
Support for Labor was almost 50% among these respondents and 33% for the Coalition - possibly a reflection of the popularity of Labor MPs Justine Elliot (Richmond) and Janelle Saffin (Page).
Overall, 42% of respondents to the APN survey identified the economy as their number one issue, more than double that of health (19%), employment (7%), CSG (6%) and asylum-seekers (5%).
Half of all respondents said they based their vote on the party, 18% the local candidate, 12% the party leader and just 10% local issues.
Asked which of the two leaders they trusted most, 55% said Opposition Leader Tony Abbott and 45% said Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.
Mr Rudd's net satisfaction rating - the difference between those satisfied and dissatisfied - was -25 according to the survey, while people were almost evenly split when it came to Mr Abbott.
The ALP was identified as having the best policies for regional Australia (28%), but this figure was eclipsed by the combined Coalition total of 44% (Nationals 22% and Liberal Party 22%).
And it appears Labor's decision to return Kevin Rudd has had little impact.
In the overall survey, 13% of people said the decision to reinstate Mr Rudd had swayed their vote towards Labor, while 7% said they would not because of the move.
Two in 10 people said they planned to vote Labor anyway, while a whopping 53% said they were never going to vote for Labor.
In terms of gender, six in 10 people who took the APN survey were men, while 42% were over the age of 55.
Looking at a breakdown of the results by gender, support for the Coalition jumps to 47% among male voters, while it dropped to 40% for women.
Conversely, support for the ALP was up slightly among female voters, to 34%, but dropped to 30% with men.
On the question of which leader they most trusted, women were almost evenly split, but Mr Abbott was well ahead of Mr Rudd 58-42% among male voters.
BY THE NUMBERS
How respondents to APN's online survey indicated they will vote on Saturday:
Palmer United Party 8.3%.
Katter's Australian Party 3.7%.
*Online survey of 2808 people conducted between Friday, August 30 and Tuesday September 3.