Bookie declares winner and pays out

 

A bookmaker has declared a Joe Biden victory, already paying out on bets for him to become the next US President.

Sportsbet tweeted the announcement just after 11am Australian time, even though the election is yet to be officially called by anyone.

The betting site had Biden at $1.10 and Trump at $6.50 but odds has been shifting dramatically over the past 48 hours.

Just yesterday afternoon, there was a huge swing to Trump, whose odds plummeted to a narrow $1.22.

But this morning, things wildy swung back in favour of Biden as the race narrows in key battleground states.

This is how Australian bookies were tracking this morning. Basically, it means for every $1 you put on that candidate, you would get the below in return if they win.

HERE ARE THE LATEST ODDS AT 10.30AM:

TAB

• Biden: $1.18

• Trump: $4.75

LADBROKES

• Biden: $1.10

• Trump: $6.30

BETFAIR

• Biden: $1.10

• Trump: $8.80

SPORTSBET

• Biden: $1.10

• Trump: $6.50

NEDS

• Biden: $1.10

• Trump: $6.30

In 2016, Trump was $2.35 before markets closed ahead of the election.

Biden's highest price was $26 in February this year.

The US election has been so popular for TAB that it will hold more money for the historical event than the AFL or NRL Grand Finals and it's the same situation for Sportsbet.

RECORD BREAKING BET

Over in the UK, a British businessman is so confident Trump will win that he has placed a record breaking bet on the president staying in the White House.

The mystery former banker used private bookies registered in the Caribbean to place a bet of $5 million ($A6.97m), with odds of 37/20, on Trump's win, according to The Sun.

If he is successful, the businessman could be taking home almost $15 million ($A20.9m).

A betting industry source told the publication the bet was believed to be "the biggest ever made on politics".

While most indicators predict a Biden victory, if 2016 taught us anything, it's that there's no such thing as a shoo-in.

There has been a huge rush in bets on the US election, providing some major clues about what to expect from one of the most crucial votes in recent history when it comes to the polls - and the betting agencies.

WHAT DID THE POLLS SAY?

On election eve in the US, there had been a flurry of last-minute polling, with the Des Moines Register poll showing Trump beating Biden 48 per cent to 41 in Iowa - a massive swing from its previous survey, which had the race tied.

A poll of New Mexico from The Albuquerque Journal, which showed Mr Biden winning 54-42, was in line with the conventional wisdom that New Mexico was a little too Democrat-leaning these days to be considered a proper swing state.

The latest batch of New York Times/Siena polls covered four different states. Those polls showed Biden up 49-43 in Arizona, 52-41 in Wisconsin, 47-44 in Florida and 49-43 in Pennsylvania.

An EPIC-MRA poll of Michigan had the Democrat leading 48-41. Another, conducted by St Pete, showed him winning Florida by a razor-thin 49-48 margin. And finally, a pair of ABC News/Washington Post surveys had Biden up 51-44 in Pennsylvania, but Trump winning Florida 50-48.

WHAT ARE THE ODDS?

Democratic hopeful Joe Biden has been the clear favourite across the major betting sites in the lead-up to the election.

But as the vote continued into the night, odds switched back in favour of Donald Trump.

Many believe betting odds offer a more accurate election prediction than polls, as people have invested their own hard-earned cash in the outcome.

These were the odds according to some of the major betting agencies, as of November 4 at 6.30pm, so you can see how much they've shifted.

TAB

• Biden: $3.20

• Trump: $1.34

LADBROKES

• Biden: $3.20

• Trump: $1.34

BETFAIR

• Biden: $1.45

• Trump: $3

SPORTSBET

• Biden: $2.88

• Trump: $1.36

NEDS

• Biden: $3.10

• Trump: $1.33

PUNTER'S STUNNING $130K GAMBLE

A record number of bets have already been placed on the US election - but one cocky TAB punter has shocked betting pros by laying down $130,000 on a Biden win.

The unnamed gambler bet the staggering pile of cash at odds of $1.57 this week.

Other big recent bets include $100,000 at $1.56 on Joe Biden and $40,000 at $2.50 on Donald Trump.

While the odds are clearly in the Democratic candidate's favour, a whopping 65 per cent of money bet on the market has gone Mr Trump's way.

There is so much interest in the US election that TAB will hold more on it than the AFL or NRL Grand Finals.

DIFFERENT BETS YOU CAN MAKE

All eyes are on the big one - whether it will be Joe Biden or Donald Trump in the White House for the next four years.

But there are also a string of other bets on the table, including the number of electoral college votes each candidate will receive, who will win the popular vote, the state electoral college winner, the state margin, seat margin, US Senate winner and many more.

For example, Mr Trump is paying $4.50 to win the popular vote compared to Mr Biden's $1.18 (the candidate to get the most votes across America).

In 2016, Ms Clinton won the popular vote but still lost the election.

RELATED: Why Americans don't want to vote

 

RELATED: America's confusing voting system explained

ODDS BEFORE 2016 ELECTION

When Donald Trump took on Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, it wasn't just the pollsters that got the outcome disastrously wrong - the betting sites also incorrectly predicted a Clinton victory.

In fact, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power failed so spectacularly it ended up with a £4 million ($A7,399,793) bill after prematurely paying out £800,000 $A1,479,958) to those who had backed Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump's shock win.

According to OddsShark, Mr Trump's odds to win the 2016 election were close to 5-to-1 on election day eve and over at TAB, Mr Trump was $2.35 before markets closed ahead of the 2016 election.

HOW TO BET

Betting on political elections is very much illegal in all 50 states in the US.

However, the same rules don't apply in other countries, which means betting agencies based in Australia, the UK and other nations are open for business, with most companies allowing punters to place a bet online.

According to Fortune, gambling insiders are expecting the previous record set in 2016 to be broken again this year, with some bookies expecting the election to be even bigger than the Super Bowl where betting in concerned.

 

Originally published as $130k bet gives big tip on election winner


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